Explaining How The Housing Market Is Influenced
The housing market continues to be influenced by the direction of mortgage interest rates and home affordability. As rates decrease, affordability will improve, eventually stimulating more demand. Mortgage rates are expected to gradually decline as the economy slows this year and inflation continues to decrease.
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Home Appraisal Appointments: What You Need To Bring
3 Things to Bring to a Home Inspection Appraisal Appointment 🏡 ✅ Questions about the market? Reach out to me today
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2024 SPRING MARKET UPDATE AND FORECAST
This year began with 35% lower active inventory than the first quarter in 2023 and that scarcity of inventory persisted for the first 12 -14 weeks of the year. Yet as we approached the end of March/ beginning of April we were seeing an onslaught of new listings coming in. This was a welcome reprieve to pent up demand - and it didn't soften the market at all! In fact, it resulted in fierce competition as this was absorbed into local buyer's hands.
What we're seeing now, as active inventory is back to the average numbers typically seen pre-pandemic in San Francisco (around 1000 Active units). Throughout most of Marin County, we have 25% less inventory than we've been used to over the last half decade. Our numbers of Active units are now up to 470+ units, a high point for the past 12-months. Demand is very robust - so much so that even with new inventory coming on, the days on Market are actually going down! This is the "Spring Effect"!
Allow me to explain some of the data: we're seeing active trading on all sides of the spectrum in San Francisco, from Below Market Rate units (as low as $250,000) on up to $24 million. In the month of April, we saw the average sale price go up to $1.719 - a number we haven't seen and it's still Rising! April's average was over $1.8M!! Marin is no less inexpensive, it is actually $1.9 million average sale price and about 65% of all the properties were absorbed in less than 30 days - what we're also seeing is that compared to this year so far, 35% of all the inventory sold in the month of April alone. The Sales of the Spring season are used as a bellwether for the rest of the year - and while previously, the market has been following the direction of the mortgage interest rates, it seems to follow the levels of inventory more so. What we're witnessing is a healthy market, more normalized market activity than the lows seen in 2023, or the spiked prices seen in ‘21-’22.
Ultimately, the rise in home prices appears to have been in the range of 3 - 5% over the last first few months of Q1-Q2 2024. While it may not remain as rapid of a rise throughout the year - I do suspect we’ll see continued activity supporting a healthy market. Again, if mortgage interest rates come down to 6%, I believe there will be a frenzy.
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Chris Jurach
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Chris Jurach: Engel & Völkers Luxury Real Estate Marin & SF
We help people invest in their future through buying and selling real estate and property management. Real Estate - Chris Jurach - Engel & Völkers
We help people invest in their future through buying and selling real estate and property management.We are a global company and lifestyle brand providing high-quality services for those seeking to buy and sell real estate properties. Chris Jurach: Engel & Völkers Luxury Real Estate Marin & SF
Chris Jurach
Global Advisor | License ID: 01864179
Chris has sold over 120+ homes throughout the Bay Area, elevating him to the top 5% of San Francisco Realtor®. Representing an equal number of Buyers and Sellers in all different property types, Chris has developed a track record of success through distinctive property transformations, design-focused marketing, and providing fiduciary service to his clients. He brings years of life experience to both sides of the Golden Gate Bridge and has a deeply-connected network through the top global real estate firm at Engel & Völkers.